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El Niño and India’s Monsoon
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warns that the ongoing El Niño could intensify into a super El Niño, raising concerns over India’s monsoon performance. The news focus remains on ENSO phases, super El Niño thresholds, and the stated India-specific monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) linkages.
ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), El Niño, and India’s Monsoon:
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| ENSO cycle (core definition) | ENSO cycle comprises fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. |
| ENSO phases | ENSO comprises 3 phases: El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cool phase), and ENSO-neutral. |
| El Niño (warm phase definition) | El Niño phase comprises warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. |
| Super El Niño (strength and threshold) | Super El Niño comprises exceptionally strong warming episodes, and temperature categories comprise: 0.5–1°C (weak), 1–1.5°C (moderate), 1.5–2°C (strong), and beyond 2°C (very strong, super). |
| El Niño process | El Niño process comprises weak trade winds that fail to push warm water west, causing the eastern Pacific to heat up, and warmer water further weakens winds, amplifying El Niño. |
| Climate change linkage (as stated) | Climate change comprises a warmer baseline ocean that adds extra heat, making recent events stronger than earlier ones. |
| Past super El Niño events (2°C threshold) | El Niño events that cross the 2°C threshold comprise 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16, with extreme droughts. |
| India monsoon rainfall deficit (since 1950) | El Niño years since 1950 comprise about 15 years with below-normal monsoon. |
| India monsoon distribution issues | Monsoon distribution issues comprise delayed onset, prolonged dry spells, and uneven rainfall, and are described as more damaging than overall reduction. |
| Agriculture and economy linkage | Deficient monsoon applies to food security, crop yields, and fiscal planning. |
| El Niño yearly cycle | El Niño yearly cycle comprises developing in spring, peaking in winter, and fading by next spring. |
| India monsoon impact window | El Niño impact on India’s monsoon applies mainly to July–September, not June. |
| Dry June qualifier | A dry June (35% deficit) does not mandate monsoon failure. |
| Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) role | Positive IOD provides for offsetting El Niño drying, and current forecasts comprise weak IOD, limiting buffering capacity. |
| Global impacts (extreme events) | Past super El Niños comprise droughts in Australia, forest fires in Indonesia, coral bleaching, and record global temperatures. |
| Global impacts (cyclones) | El Niño effects on tropical cyclone distribution comprise suppressed Atlantic hurricanes and increased Pacific typhoons. |