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FAO-WMO Report 2026 Flags Extreme Heat
A joint report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that extreme heat is a primary threat to global food security. The report provides quantified impacts of warming on crop yields, agricultural productivity, and sectoral losses, and flags India as a high-risk zone for heat-related agrifood vulnerabilities.
FAO–WMO Report on Extreme Heat and Food Security (2026):
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Issuing organisations | The report is released jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). |
| Key warning | The report provides for extreme heat as a primary threat to global food security. |
| Temperature threshold for major crops | Most major food crops begin to suffer yield losses once temperatures exceed 30°C. |
| Crop yield reductions per 1°C warming | Per 1°C warming, yield reductions comprise: maize -7.5% baseline drop (with future projections modelling up to a 10% fall per additional degree Celsius), soybean -6.8% drop, and wheat -6.0% drop. |
| Adaptation finding (grain production) | Grain production shows negligible adaptation or increased resilience to extreme heat over the last 50 years. |
| Total Factor Productivity (TFP) impact since 1961 | Due to escalating heat stress on land, capital, and labour, global agricultural productivity has been slashed by 21% since 1961, erasing nearly 7 full years of structural, technological, and agronomic gains. |
| India risk classification | The report comprises India as a high-risk zone for heat-related agrifood system impacts. |
| India: rice crop vulnerability and responses | More frequent, intense heatwaves during crucial growth phases destabilise rice yields; Indian farmers implement altering sowing calendars, adopting heat-tolerant or early-flowering cultivars, and deploying surface-cooling irrigation, and these measures hit physical and biological limits. |
| India: agricultural labour heat loss (2024) | In 2024, an average Indian agricultural worker loses 648 working hours, equivalent to 54 full working days, to dangerous heat stress. |
| Wet-bulb temperatures in key river basins | Under high-emission trajectories, major portions of the Ganga and Indus river basins are projected to experience wet-bulb temperatures that approach or breach safe biological thresholds for human survival during outdoor physical activity. |
| Livestock heat-stress thresholds | Cattle, goats, and sheep experience heat stress above 25°C, and pigs and poultry above 24°C. |
| Livestock output impacts beyond 30°C | Every 1°C rise past 30°C causes a 3% to 5% drop in feed intake, degrading milk and egg output and immunity. |
| Livestock losses projection (high-emission scenario) | Under a high-emission scenario, global cattle industry losses could reach $40 billion annually by 2100, reducible by two-thirds under low-emission compliance. |
| Fisheries impacts (marine heatwaves) | Intense marine heatwaves cause mass mortality of coastal marine life and force geographic migration of commercial fish stocks toward cooler polar waters, undercutting small-scale coastal livelihoods. |
| Forests and orchards impacts | Extreme heat spurs fruit drop and lower production in commercial orchards, and increases fuel-load aridity, causing mega-wildfires that decimate carbon sinks. |