OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 projects that food-based (first-generation) biofuels continue to dominate global biofuel production through 2035. The joint OECD-FAO report provides a 10-year forecast of global, regional, and national trends in agriculture, biofuels, and seafood markets.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035: 

Dimension	Key Details
Report type	Comprises a joint OECD-FAO report that provides a 10-year forecast of global, regional, and national trends in agriculture, biofuels, and seafood markets.
First-generation biofuels	Comprises biofuels produced from edible food crops using established fermentation and transesterification processes.
First-generation biofuels: examples	Comprises ethanol from maize, sugarcane, rice, and cereals, and biodiesel from soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil.
Second-generation biofuels	Comprises biofuels manufactured from non-edible biomass or lignocellulosic biomass, requiring more complex thermochemical and biochemical conversion methods.
Second-generation biofuels: examples	Comprises agricultural residues, including straw and husks, and forestry waste.
Lignocellulosic biomass	Comprises structural plant material mainly made of cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, and is described as Earth’s most abundant renewable resource.
Key finding: market dominance	Provides for first-generation biofuels continuing to dominate global biofuel markets over the next decade.
Key finding: second-generation share	Provides for second-generation biofuel not seeing a substantial increase in production share.
Global ethanol projection (2035)	Mandates a projection of production expected to reach 162.5 billion litres by 2035.
Ethanol feedstock share	Comprises maize (61%), sugarcane (22%), molasses (5%), and wheat (2%).
Global biodiesel projection (2035)	Mandates a projection of output rising to 99 billion litres by 2035.
Biodiesel feedstock share	Comprises vegetable oils (69%), and used cooking oils and tallow (23%).
Biofuel demand growth rate (through 2035)	Mandates a projection of biofuel demand growing at 1.4% annually through 2035, slower than the past decade.
Global demand growth: emerging economies	Provides for emerging economies, including India, Brazil, and Indonesia, accounting for 80% of demand growth.