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UNEP “Limiting Overshoot” Report
UNEP publishes the “Limiting Overshoot” report, stating that global warming is set to overshoot 1.5°C in the coming years due to high ongoing emissions. The report notes that current national policies and pledges project global peak temperatures reaching 1.8°C to over 2°C.
UNEP “Limiting Overshoot” Report:
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Reason for overshoot | Global warming is set to overshoot 1.5°C in the coming years due to high ongoing emissions. |
| Overshoot definition | Climate “overshoot” comprises a multidecadal pathway where global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before declining back below that limit. |
| Report position on overshoot | Overshoot is by no means an acceptable or preferred pathway, and it is stated as the best remaining option. |
| Severe impacts listed | Overshooting 1.5°C intensifies extreme heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, and sea-level rise. |
| Tipping points risks listed | Higher warming increases risks of irreversible damage, including ice sheet collapse, Amazon rainforest dieback, and Atlantic ocean circulation disruption. |
| Socioeconomic losses listed | Overshooting 1.5°C threatens Small Island Developing States (SIDS) habitability, impairs water security, and could reduce global food production by up to 14% by 2050. |
| Way forward: Deep mitigation | Deep mitigation provides for immediate, rapid cuts to CO₂ and short-lived pollutants like methane to cap peak warming. |
| Way forward: Transformational adaptation | Transformational adaptation mandates advancing adaptation hand-in-hand with mitigation to protect vulnerable populations and ecosystems. |
| Way forward: Carbon removal | Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) authorises responsible scaling to achieve net-negative emissions, ensuring it complements rather than replaces direct emissions reductions. |