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UNEP’s Report Flags Imminent Breach of 1.5°C Warming Target
UNEP releases a new “Limiting Overshoot” report stating that the world likely temporarily breaches the 1.5°C warming target above preindustrial temperatures within the next few years. The report sets out an overshoot, peak, and decline pathway, and states that breaching the 1.5°C global warming limit is now unavoidable.
UNEP Limiting Overshoot Report:
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Pathway set out | The report comprises, for the first time, an overshoot, peak, and decline pathway. |
| Assessment on 1.5°C limit | The report comprises a statement that breaching the 1.5°C global warming limit is now unavoidable. |
| Scenario if national plans and net-zero targets are delivered | The report comprises a finding that even if every country delivers on its national climate plan and net-zero target, peak warming is at 1.8°C. |
| Projection under current policies | The report comprises a finding that current policies point to a rise of about 2.6°C by 2100, with a range of 1.9 to 3.6°C. |
| Costs of time spent above 1.5°C | The report comprises compounding costs associated with time spent above 1.5°C: faster sea-level rise; coral reef collapse; glacier loss exceeding a quarter of global mass by 2100; declines of up to 14% in global food production by 2050 without effective adaptation; irreversible tipping points in the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and the Amazon. |
| Methane emphasis | The report comprises a focus on methane and comprises a statement that cutting methane is described as the most effective way to slow warming in the near term. |