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La Niña-to-El Niño Transition
A study published in Nature Geoscience linked recent global temperature spikes to Earth’s energy imbalance and ENSO shifts. The study highlighted the combined role of human-driven warming and the transition from La Niña to El Niño.
Earth’s Energy Imbalance and ENSO:
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Temperature Spike | Earth’s temperature rose sharply in early 2023 and remained elevated through 2025 above the long term warming trend |
| Energy Imbalance | Scientists examined the difference between energy entering Earth and energy leaving to space with more heat trapped in 2022 |
| Main Causes of Heat Increase | Extra trapped heat mainly resulted from long term human driven climate change and the transition from La Niña to El Niño |
| Contribution of Long La Niña | About 23 percent of recent heat increase linked to the prolonged three year La Niña event from 2020 to 2023 |
| Heat Storage Mechanism | During prolonged La Niña phases oceans absorb and store excess heat transferring it into deeper Pacific Ocean layers |
| Heat Release Mechanism | Stored ocean heat can later be released during a strong El Niño contributing to record global temperatures |
| Fossil Fuel Contribution | Slightly more than half of the extra heat originated from greenhouse gases released by burning coal oil and gas |
| ENSO | El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific |
| ENSO Phases | Includes El Niño warm phase La Niña cool phase and a neutral phase |
| El Niño | Characterised by warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific |
| La Niña | Characterised by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific |
| Trade Winds Effect | El Niño weakens trade winds in the western Pacific while La Niña strengthens them |
| Sea Surface Temperature Change | El Niño increases temperatures in the eastern Pacific by about 6 to 8 degrees Celsius while La Niña reduces them by about 3 to 5 degrees Celsius |
| Ocean Upwelling | El Niño reduces upwelling of cold nutrient rich waters whereas La Niña enhances upwelling near South America |
| Impact on India | El Niño suppresses monsoon rainfall while La Niña is associated with better monsoon rainfall |
| Frequency | El Niño occurs roughly every 3 to 7 years and La Niña occurs about half as often as El Niño events |
| Classification Update | Scientists updated ENSO classification methods due to increasing ocean temperatures |