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451,000 Additional Heat Deaths from Strong El Niño
The University of Chicago-led Climate Impact Lab projects approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide due to a strong El Niño. The Sahel region of Africa is expected to experience the highest mortality burden, and Nigeria is projected to have the highest heat-related mortality at the country level with an estimated 31,400 additional deaths.
Sahel Region and Strong El Niño:
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Sahel location | The Sahel is a semi-arid region of Africa situated between the Sahara Desert to the north and the tropical savannas to the south. |
| Sahel extent | The Sahel stretches from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Red Sea in the east. |
| Sahel coverage | The Sahel covers parts of several countries: Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal, and Eritrea. |
| Sahel vulnerability | Mortality risk is increased by extreme heat, poverty, and limited cooling capacity; high poverty levels reduce adaptive capacity; unreliable electricity access limits the use of cooling devices; reliance on agriculture increases exposure to heat and drought; outdoor workers face prolonged heat exposure; limited healthcare capacity makes it more difficult to manage illnesses related to heatwaves. |
| Vulnerable groups | Vulnerable groups comprise older adults (over 65 years), young children (ages 0 to 4 years), individuals with chronic health conditions, outdoor workers (especially those in agriculture), and individuals lacking reliable access to electricity or cooling. |
| Immediate adaptation measures | Immediate adaptation measures comprise implementing early warning systems for extreme heat; developing and maintaining Heat Action Plans; establishing cooling centres and hydration stations; conducting targeted health outreach for vulnerable populations; ensuring protection for outdoor workers during peak heat hours; increasing hospital staffing levels and medical supplies; preparing healthcare systems for surges in heatstroke and sunstroke cases. |
| El Niño definition | El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. |
| El Niño effects | El Niño alters global atmospheric circulation and can affect temperature and rainfall patterns in regions well beyond the Pacific. |
| Strong El Niño and temperature | A strong El Niño can lead to above-normal temperatures in many areas, although its effects differ by region. |