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NSO’s First Advance Estimates: India’s FY 2025-26 Real GDP Growth Seen at 7.4%
The Government estimates India’s real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY 2025-26 in the NSO’s First Advance Estimates. The estimates are released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation and are based on data available up to November 2025.
NSO First Advance Estimates: FY 2025-26
| Dimension | Key Details |
|---|---|
| Release authority | Released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation |
| Data cut-off and revision | Up to November 2025; revised in the Second Advance Estimates (usually released in February) |
| Real GDP growth | Projected at 7.4% in FY 2025-26; reported at 6.5% in FY 2024-25 |
| Nominal GDP growth | Expected to grow at about 8% in FY 2025-26 |
| GVA growth | Gross Value Added (GVA) for FY 2025-26 projected to expand by around 7.3% |
| Sector-wise GVA at constant prices | Services sector is the primary driver; Financial, Real Estate and Professional Services and Public Administration are expected to grow by 9.9%; Manufacturing and Construction are projected to grow by 7.0%; Agriculture and allied sectors are expected to slow to 3.1% (from 4.6% in the previous fiscal year); Mining and quarrying is estimated to contract by 0.7% |
| Manufacturing | Grows at 4.5% in the previous year (as referenced alongside a FY 2025-26 projection of 7.0%) |
| Demand-side: PFCE | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) estimated to grow by 7.0% in FY 2025-26; reported at 7.2% in FY 2024-25 |
| Demand-side: GFCF | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) provides for a proxy for investment; projected to rise by 7.8% in FY 2025-26; reported at 7.1% last year |
| Real GDP | Provides for an inflation-adjusted measure reflecting actual quantity of final goods and services produced in a given year; uses constant prices from a specific base year |
| Nominal GDP | Total value of all final goods and services produced measured at current market prices; does not adjust for inflation |
| GVA | Economic productivity metric measuring contribution of a corporate subsidiary, company, or municipality to an economy, producer, sector, or region; represents value of goods and services produced after deducting cost of inputs and raw materials used |