The emissions humans put into the atmosphere now will affect the climate in the middle of the century and onwards. Technological change, meanwhile, could make a future transition away from fossil fuels cheap or it might not, leaving the world with a terrible choice between sharply reducing emissions at huge cost or suffering through the effects of unabated warming. Businesses that do not hedge against the threat of uncertain outcomes fail. The world cannot afford such recklessness on climate change.

Correct Option (C)

The passage emphasizes the long-term consequences of current emissions and the inherent uncertainty surrounding future technological advancements to mitigate climate change. It highlights the risk of delaying action, stating that relying on future technology, which may or may not become cost-effective, could lead to a "terrible choice" between expensive emission reductions or severe warming effects. The author uses the analogy of businesses hedging against uncertain outcomes to underscore the imperative of proactive measures against climate change. Therefore, the crucial message is that postponing action on carbon emissions in anticipation of future technological improvements is a precarious and unwise strategy, given the potential for significant economic and environmental costs.

Incorrect Options:

• Option (A) Businesses that cause emissions may need to close down - or pay for pollution in future: The passage uses the business analogy to illustrate the need for hedging against climate risks due to uncertainty, not to explicitly suggest the closure of businesses or mandatory pollution payments. It focuses on the broader strategic risk of inaction.
• Option (B) The only solution is technological development related to the issues of climate change: The passage acknowledges technological change but critically points out its uncertainty as a major risk factor. It warns against over-reliance on future technology rather than presenting it as the sole solution.
• Option (D) Since future technological change is uncertain, new industries should be based on renewable energy sources: While transitioning to renewable energy is a potential strategy, the passage's central message is about the danger of waiting due to technological uncertainty. It does not primarily advocate for a specific industrial shift to renewables as its crucial message, but rather the urgency of addressing emissions despite technological unknowns.